Heat pumps have reshaped August shipments over 10 years
October 12, 2026
Need to Know
Combined U.S. central air conditioner and air-source heat pump shipments reached 756,739 units in August 2026, an 11.4% increase over August 2025, marking seven consecutive months of year-over-year growth.
Heat pumps accounted for 44.7% of combined cooling equipment shipments in August 2026, up from 31% in August 2016, reflecting a 57.6% increase in heat pump shipments over the decade.
Gas warm-air furnace shipments declined 4.3% to 287,710 units in August 2026, while oil furnace shipments increased 27.1% to 3,052 units, extending a six-month growth streak.
Central a/c unit shipments saw impressive growth in August, though they still haven’t caught up to the steady increase that heat pumps continue to experience.

The new Equipment Shipment Data report from Air-Conditioning, Heating, & Refrigeration Institute analyzed August 2026 shipment data, showing central a/c units growing by 17.2% compared to the same time last year, outpacing heat pumps by more than three times.

Even so, heat pumps continue to drive growth and are a major portion of cooling equipment shipments, increasing to nearly 50% of the share over the past decade.

Other equipment categories had mixed results during the summer month, with oil furnaces continuing a surprising rebound while gas furnaces and residential water heater categories declined.

Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
Combined shipments of a/c and heat pump equipment have increased for seven straight months (February through August). Even so, August’s increase was not as strong as June and July, which saw 21.7% and 20.1%, respectively. This could be chalked up to seasonal shifts.

When broken down, heat pumps remain a stalwart source of growth, having increased over the past seven months, whereas a/c units have seen consecutive growth for six months (March increased by only 0.1%). This indicates the recovery of cooling equipment has been stable versus one or two unusually strong months.

Here is how August 2026 compared to August 2025:

Air conditioners and heat pumps: 756,739 units, up 11.4% from 679,378
Air conditioners only: 418,323 units, up 17.2% from 356,930
Heat pumps only: 338,416 units, up 5% from 322,448
Heat pumps were 44.7% of the combined shipments. That is the second-highest percentage for August in the report’s history, second only to August 2025 (47.5%).

The following compares the year-to-date shipments for August 2026 compared to August 2025:

Air conditioner units and air-source heat pumps: 6.39 million, up 6.2% from 6.02 million
Air conditioners only: 3.48 million, up 6.5% from 3.27 million
Heat pumps only: 2.91 million, up 5.7% from 2.75 million
The numbers signal a stronger distributor replenishment activity and improved availability heading into fall.

Warm-Air Furnaces
Like previous reports for summer months, heating equipment is not sought out nearly as much as cooling equipment in August. Of the two categories, though, oil furnaces continue a six-month growth streak.

The following are the numbers for August 2026 compared to August 2025:

Gas warm-air furnaces: 287,710, down 4.3% from 300,585
Oil warm-air furnaces: 3,052, up 27.1% from 2,401
The oil furnace growth is interesting, as it was higher than August 2025 by 27.1% and 40% from August 2024. Even so, this doesn’t necessarily indicate a nationwide demand for the product, as gas furnaces make up the majority of the market share.

August 2026 year-to-date shipping totals were as follows, compared to August 2025:

Gas warm-air furnaces: 2.11 million, down 5% from 2.22 million
Oil warm-air furnaces: 20,693, up 15.7% from 17,891

Residential Storage Water Heaters
Just as they did in July, gas and electric residential water heater shipments fell in August. Gas water heaters have increased year over year for the past two months after declining in January through May.

Residential gas storage water heaters: 299,710, down 1.9% from 305,401
Residential electric storage water heaters: 368,402, down 1.6% from 374,414
Electric units are still outselling their gas counterparts, with 68,692 more electric units sold, though this isn’t confirmation that they are consistently growing. Case in point, both categories saw declines compared to August 2025’s year-to-date totals:

Residential gas storage water heaters: 2.79 million, down 2.4% from 2.86 million
Residential electric storage water heaters: 3.25 million, down 4.8% from 3.41 million

Historical August Trends
Combined cooling equipment shipments saw a 9.3% increase when examining the past decade of August data. In August 2016, combined a/c and heat pump shipments were 692,214, while in August 2026 it was 756,739.

Heat Pump Share of August Cooling Shipments.
HEAT PUMP SHARE: Heat pumps have slowly taken on a larger share of the combined a/c and heat pump shipments since 2010. (Generative AI chart created by ChatGPT)

Like previous reports, the August data highlights the steady growth of heat pumps. From August 2016 to August 2026, heat pump shipments increased by 57.6%. Compare this to a/c units, which declined 12.4% in the same period.

In August 2016, heat pumps represented 31% of combined cooling shipments. That has grown to 44.7%. Heat pumps have represented more than 40% of August cooling shipments in three of the past five years.

This being the case, heat pumps should be treated as a core part of cooling season business planning, not just a heating season product.

Electric and gas water heater shipment totals were below previous years in August, with gas units down 12.1% and electric down 16.1% compared to August. Gas water heaters have declined by 14.9% from August 2016, while electric units have seen modest growth of 3.7%.

On the furnace front, recent declines haven’t stopped overall growth over the past decade. Gas furnaces are up by 5.3% compared to August 2016, and oil furnaces are up 13.3%.

Overall growth from the report’s first data set for August 2009 shipments is as follows:

RECESSION RECOVERY: A look at how August 2026 shipment numbers compared to August 2009, the report’s earliest data set and when the country was enduring the Great Recession. (Generative AI chart created by ChatGPT)

Many of these numbers are eye-popping, such as heat pump growth of 159.7% compared to a/c’s 24.3%, and oil furnaces’ overall decline of 33.8%. There is a caveat: 2009 was during the Great Recession, so the table doesn’t necessarily reflect growth rates through the period from 2009 to 2026.

Source https://www.achrnews.com/articles/166784-cooling-equipment-shipment-growth-hits-7-month-streak